Rogelio Andrade Mancisidor
Assistant Professor - Department of Data Science and Analytics
Area of Expertise
Andrade Mancisidor, Rogelio; Kampffmeyer, Michael, Aas, Kjersti & Jenssen, Robert (2021)
Learning latent representations of bank customers with the Variational Autoencoder
Expert Systems With Applications, 164 Doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2020.114020
Learning data representations that reflect the customers’ creditworthiness can improve marketing campaigns, customer relationship management, data and process management or the credit risk assessment in retail banks. In this research, we show that it is possible to steer data representations in the latent space of the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) using a semi-supervised learning framework and a specific grouping of the input data called Weight of Evidence (WoE). Our proposed method learns a latent representation of the data showing a well-defied clustering structure. The clustering structure captures the customers’ creditworthiness, which is unknown a priori and cannot be identified in the input space. The main advantages of our proposed method are that it captures the natural clustering of the data, suggests the number of clusters, captures the spatial coherence of customers’ creditworthiness, generates data representations of unseen customers and assign them to one of the existing clusters. Our empirical results, based on real data sets reflecting different market and economic conditions, show that none of the well-known data representation models in the benchmark analysis are able to obtain well-defined clustering structures like our proposed method. Further, we show how banks can use our proposed methodology to improve marketing campaigns and credit risk assessment.
Andrade Mancisidor, Rogelio; Kampffmeyer, Michael, Aas, Kjersti & Jenssen, Robert (2020)
Deep generative models for reject inference in credit scoring
Knowledge-Based Systems, 196 Doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2020.105758
Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected applications. Inspired by the promising results of semi-supervised deep generative models, this research develops two novel Bayesian models for reject inference in credit scoring combining Gaussian mixtures and auxiliary variables in a semi-supervised framework with generative models. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study coupling these concepts together. The goal is to improve the classification accuracy in credit scoring models by adding reject applications. Further, our proposed models infer the unknown creditworthiness of the rejected applications by exact enumeration of the two possible outcomes of the loan (default or non-default). The efficient stochastic gradient optimization technique used in deep generative models makes our models suitable for large data sets. Finally, the experiments in this research show that our proposed models perform better than classical and alternative machine learning models for reject inference in credit scoring, and that model performance increases with the amount of data used for model training.
|2021||University of Tromsø||Ph.D.|