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Employee Profile

Hilde Christiane Bjørnland

Professor

Department of Economics

Biography

Please see my homepage for further information.

Hilde C. Bjørnland is Professor of Economics at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics, and a PhD (Dr.Polit) in Economics from the University of Oslo. She was awarded His Majesty, The King of Norway’s Gold medal for the Ph.D. thesis in social Sciences.

Her main area of research is within applied macroeconomics and time series. Special interests include the study of natural resources, business cycles and monetary and fiscal policy. She has published in leading journals such as the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Economics and the Review of Economics and Statistics.

Bjørnland is also Director and Founder of Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP) at the BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a position as a scientific advisor to Norges Bank, she is elected Fellow to the International Association of Applied Econometrics (IAAE), Ex-President and elected member of the Executive Committe for Society for Nonlinear and Dynamics Econometrics (SNDE) and research associate of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) at the Australia National University. She is also member of the Finnish Economic Policy Council and the Norwegian Government Commission appointed to assess the Financial Supervisory Act and activities.
Bjørnland has previously held positions as Provost for Research and Academic Resources at BI Norwegian Business School, staff economist at the International Monetary Fund and Associate Professor at the University of Oslo. She has been a Visiting Scholar at UC Berkeley and UC Riverside, a member of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council, member of the corporate assembly of Norsk Hydro ASA, a board member of the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, the Petroleum Price Board, and the Abel Prize Board. Bjørnland has been a member of several governement commissions and groups, including the Norwegian government appointed expert group assessing the economic consequences of COVID-19, the Norwegian government commission to reevaluate the fiscal rule for the take-out from the oil fund (Thøgersen Commission) and the Norwegian government commisssion that assessed the equity portion of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (Mork Commission).

Publications

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Zhulanova Skretting, Julia (2024)

The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects

Journal of applied econometrics, s. 1- 21. Doi: 10.1002/jae.3059

We provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state-level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non-oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non-oil) employment in most oil-producing and some manufacturing-intensive US states increase following an oil-specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Cross, Jamie (2023)

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PASS-THROUGH OF OIL PRICES

Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(3), s. 733- 743. Doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01073

Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior (2021)

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers

Energy Economics, 96 Doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105138 - Full text in research archive

We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectations framework, we estimate the model for Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the UK. We find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant over the estimation sample. Furthermore, monetary policy has responded strongly to the exchange rate for many commodity exporters, most notablyNorway. This has had a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate. In particular, although the terms of trade are highly volatile among commodity exporters, the exchange rate has about the same volatility across all importers and exporters in the recent period.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Rohrer, Maximilian (2021)

Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota

Journal of applied econometrics, 36(3), s. 273- 292. Doi: 10.1002/jae.2808 - Full text in research archive

This paper provides new results to the literature, showing that output flexibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, constructing a novel well-level monthly production dataset covering more than 16,000 crude oil wells in North Dakota, we find supply elasticity of shale wells to be positive and in the range of 0.3–0.9, depending on wells and firms characteristics. We find no such responses for conventional wells. We interpret the supply pattern of shale oil wells to be consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. Reserves are an inventory, and the decision to produce is an intertemporal choice of when to draw down below-ground inventory.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (2019)

Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Doi: 10.1111/obes.12335 - Full text in research archive

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Torvik, Ragnar (2019)

Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered

European Economic Review, 119, s. 411- 433. Doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.016 - Full text in research archive

In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude – incorrectly based on our analysis – that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2018)

Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

Journal of applied econometrics Doi: 10.1002/jae.2669

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Maih, Junior (2018)

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(4), s. 128- 151. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20150171

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2017)

Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different

International Journal of Forecasting, 33(1), s. 153- 173. Doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.02.004

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Maih, Junior & Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (2016)

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

Working Paper, Norges Bank

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)

Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies

Economic Journal, 126(598), s. 2219- 2256. Doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12302

Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 118(1), s. 168- 195. Doi: 10.1111/sjoe.12126

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)

Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule

CAMP Working paper series Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2777838

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (2015)

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

CAMP Working paper series Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2842560

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior (2015)

Monetary policy and exchange rate stabilization in Norway and Sweden

Andersen, Torben M.; Bergman, U. Michael & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E. (red.). Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2014)

What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies

Journal of applied econometrics, 30(7), s. 1013- 1028. Doi: 10.1002/jae.2406

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2014)

How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 76(2), s. 208- 232. Doi: 10.1111/obes.12014

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2013)

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 115(4), s. 1084- 1106. Doi: 10.1111/sjoe.12031

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2012)

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(2), s. 163- 179. Doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00639.x

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2011)

Weights and pools for a Norwegian density combination

The North American journal of economics and finance, 22(1), s. 61- 76. Doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2010.09.001

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Leitemo, Kai & Maih, Junior (2011)

Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework

Empirical Economics, 40(3), s. 755- 777. Doi: 10.1007/s00181-010-0366-7

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2010)

The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

Journal of Financial Stability, 6(4), s. 218- 229. Doi: 10.1016/j.jfs.2010.02.001

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Leitemo, Kai (2009)

Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), s. 275- 282. Doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.12.001

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2009)

Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all

Journal of International Economics, 79(1), s. 64- 77. Doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.06.003

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2008)

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110(1), s. 197- 221. Doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00532.x

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie (2008)

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

Empirical Economics, 35(3), s. 413- 436. Doi: 10.1007/s00181-007-0165-y

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Hungnes, Håvard (2006)

The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate

Journal of Forecasting, 25 Doi: 10.1002/for.983

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2005)

A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: the case of Venezuela

Applied Economics, 37

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2004)

The role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber in a small open economy

Open Economies Review, 15, s. 23- 43.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2004)

Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

Economics Bulletin, 6, s. 1- 8.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Konjunkturforskning i et historisk lys. Er konjunktursvingninger like reelle som før?

Økonomisk forum, 56, s. 30- 40.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2001)

Identifying domestic and imported core inflation

Applied Economics, 33(14), s. 1819- 1831.

This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. However, CPI inflation misrepresents core inflation during some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative non-core (supply) shocks of the late 1980s which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)

Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway - an international comparison

Empirical Economics, 25(3), s. 369- 392.

This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles in Norway and selected countries.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)

The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks-A Comparative Study

Manchester School, 68(5), s. 578- 607.

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and oil price shocks on GDP and unemployment in Germany, Norway, UK and US, and establishes the role of the different shocks in explaining output fluctuations over time. Symmetries of economic fluctuations across countries are also examined. The different shocks are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a structural VAR model. For all countries except Norway, oil price shocks have significant negative effects on output. However, whereas the oil price shock in 1973/1974 triggered off a global recession, the recession in the early 1980s was largely caused by other disturbances.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1999)

Structural breaks and stochastic trends in macroeoconomic variables in Norway

Applied Economics Letters, 6(3), s. 133- 138.

This paper analyses the dynamic properties of several macroeconomic variables in Norway, using different unit root tests and measures of persistence. For none of the variables can we reject the hypothesis of a unit root in favour of a deterministic linear trend alternative. However, when allowing for a structural break in the trend alternative, we can reject the hypothesis of a unit root for unemployment, government consumption, investment and real wage. Most of the Norwegian time series display little persistence. However, for those series that show a high degree of persistence, adjusting for the break in the trend, persistence falls considerably.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)

The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(5), s. 553- 585.

This paper analyses the economic effects of the oil and gas sector (energy booms) on manufacturing output in two energy producing countries: Norway and the UK. In particular, I investigate whether there is evidence of a "Dutch disease", that is whether energy booms have had adverse effects on manufactures. In additions to energy booms, three other types of structural disturbances are identified: demand, supply and oil price shocks. The different disturbances are identified by imposing dynamic restrictions on a vector autoregressive model. Overall, there is only weak evidence of a Dutch disease in the UK, whereas manufacturing output in Norway has actually benefited from energy discoveries and higher oil prices.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)

Håpløse spådommer, bølgeteori og falske sykler

Sosialøkonomen, 52(6), s. 18- 27.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1997)

Estimering av underliggende inflasjon

Sosialøkonomen, s. 12- 18.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Virker renten?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Oljepengebruken må under lupen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Fortsatt inflasjonsfare

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Uforutsigbar finanspolitikk er problemet

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Renten må fortsatt opp

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2023)

Rentene kan bli høye lenge

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)

Krisevarsling og økonomisk politikk

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)

Koronaskjevhet kan bremse oppgangen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)

Handlingsregelen bør fortsatt skrotes

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)

På tide å skrote Handlingsregelen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2021)

God grunn til å frykte boomerang til høsten

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Koronahjelp til klimakampen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Pandemien vil gi varige endringer – politikerne må tilrettelegge for det nå

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Den andre bølgen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Arbeid etter pandemien

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Oppgangen kan ta tid denne gangen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Vi må forberede oss på den nye normalen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Det hjelper norsk økonomi lite om vi "åpner Norge" nå

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Tid for omstilling

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Det verste er foran oss

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Prioriteringer i en krevende tid

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Nitrist sommer

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Programmering for fremtiden

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Omstillingsdebatt på avveie

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Tid for prioritering

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2014)

Norway: Cruise control

Financial Times [Avis]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Tåler vi halvert oljepris?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Detaljstyrt stat

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Asia i førersetet

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Valgkamp i en krevende tid

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Bruk pengene smartere

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)

Ringvirkninger av olje

Finansavisen [Kronikk]

Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Bjørnland, Hilde C (2012)

Ser i glasskulen med nye øyne

Dagens Næringsliv [Avis]

Bjørnland, Hilde C & NRK, nyhetsjournalist (2012)

Har gitt diverse intervju for Dagsnytt 18, Dagsrevyen, Ekko, Dagsnytt

[TV]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)

Skjermet fra Eurokrisen

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)

Ond sirkel i USA

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)

Evig boligprisvekst?

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)

Staten – for stor og dyr

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2011)

Jubileum og Justering

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Moen, Espen R (2011)

Oljens Ringvirkninger

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Miller, J. Isaac; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Chang, Yoosoon (1)

Introduction to “New Developments in Econometrics of Energy and Climate”

Energy Economics [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (1)

Oljeringvirkninger

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1)

Gjestekommentar hver åttende uke i Dagens Næringsliv

Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]

Halvorsen, Kristin; Helgesen, Vidar, Arnstad, Ada Johanna, Bjørlo, Alfred, Bjørnland, Hilde C, Gjørv, Alexandra Bech, Heggelund, Stefan, Holden, Steinar, Lund, Diderik, Lunde, Geir Inge, Osmundsen, Terje, Nøstbakken, Linda, Schjelderup, Harald, Sivertsen, Eirik & Sundland, Siren (2020)

Raskere klimaomstilling. Redusert risiko. Ny politikk for Norge i en verden som når Parismålene. Rapport fra klimaomstillingsutvalget.

[Report]. Klimaomstillingsutvalget.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2020)

Et ekspansivt budsjett, preget av usikkerhet

[Popular scientific article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, s. 18- 21. - Full text in research archive

Holden, Steinar; Bjørnland, Hilde C, von Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad, Løken, Katrine Vellesen, Sæther, Erik Magnus, Torstensen, Kjersti Næss & Torvik, Ragnar (2020)

Covid-19 – Analyse av økonomiske tiltak, insentiver for vekst og omstilling

[Report]. Finansdepartementet.

Holden, Steinar; Bjørnland, Hilde C, von Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad, Torstensen, Kjersti Næss, Magnussen, Jon, Sæther, Erik Magnus, Aavitsland, Preben, Røttingen, John-Arne & Løken, Katrine Vellesen (2020)

Covid-19 – samfunnsøkonomisk vurdering av smitteverntiltak – andre rapport

[Report]. Helsedirektoratet.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2017)

Should monetary policy pay attention to financial stability?

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Arbeidsnotater, finansdepartementet, s. 77- 83.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2017)

Penningpolitiska utmaningar – att väga i dag mot i morgon. (Kommentar i Nationalekonomiska Föreningens förhandlingar.)

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Ekonomisk Debatt, s. 71- 96.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (2016)

Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?

[Report]. BI Norwegian Business School.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2016)

Ringvirkninger i råvareproduserende land

[Popular scientific article]. Samfunnsøkonomen, s. 40- 41.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Discussion of Vitor Gaspar and Paulo Medas: Fiscal management of non-renewable natural resources

[Academic lecture]. Third IMF Statistical Forum.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2015)

Tracking the oil price decline and the effect on the Norwegian economy

[Academic lecture]. The International Economic Forum of the Americas.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)

Applied Time Series for Macroeconomics

[Textbook]. Gyldendal Akademisk.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2015)

Hva skjer når oljeprisen faller? (Aktuell kommentar)

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Samfunnsøkonomen, 129(2), s. 22- 29.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Norway and Sweden (co-author Junior Maih)

[Academic lecture]. Reform Capacity and Macroeconomic Performance in the Nordic Countries.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Mentor at the workshop for junior females at pre conference workshop

[Academic lecture]. 23rd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation (co-authors: Ragna Alstadheim and Junior Maih)

[Academic lecture]. Seminar series.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Alstadheim, Ragna & Maih, Junior (2013)

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation

[Report]. CAMP Working Paper.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Alstadheim, Ragna & Maih, Junior (2013)

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation

[Report]. Norges Bank Working Paper.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)

Ringvirkninger - Norsk økonomi og olje

[Report]. CME Working Paper.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2013)

Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy

[Report]. CAMP Working Paper.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy (co-author Leif Anders Thorsrud)

[Academic lecture]. 23rd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Econometrics Group (MEG).

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation (co-authors: Ragna Alstadheim and Junior Maih)

[Academic lecture]. 19th International conference in Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF).

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2013)

Chair of invited session on oil prices

[Academic lecture]. Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) annual meeting in San Diego.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2012)

Small open economies, terms of trade and monetary policy

[Academic lecture]. Conference on monetary and fiscal policy in Nordic countries.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2012)

Do Central Banks respond to the Exchange rate? A Markov-Switching structural investigation

[Academic lecture]. European Central Bank conference on energy and the macroeconomy.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2012)

Monetary policy, terms of trade and exchange rate responses. A Markov-Switching structural investigation

[Academic lecture]. Western Economic Association, San Francisco, July 2012.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2012)

House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2012)

What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Wilhelmsen, Bjørn Roger (2011)

Norges Bank Watch 2011 An Independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Aastveit, Knut Are & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2011)

The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Aastveit, Knut Are (2011)

The World is not enough! Small open ecnomics and regional dependence

[Report]. Norges Bank.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2010)

Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?

[Academic lecture]. The 30th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting.

Steigum, Erling; Bjørnland, Hilde C, Clarida, Richard & Holvik, Elisabeth (2010)

An independent evaluation of monetary policy in Norway. Norges Bank Watch Report Series No. 11

[Report]. Centre for Monetary Economics, BI Norwegian School of Management, Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Clarida, Richard, Holvik, Elisabeth & Steigum, Erling (2010)

Norges Bank Watch 2010 An Independent Evaluation of Monetary Policy in Norway

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2010)

How does monetary policy respondto exchange rate movements? New international evidence

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C; Gerdrup, Karsten, Jore, Anne Sofie, Smith, Christie & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2010)

Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2009)

The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

[Report]. Norges Bank.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Leitemo, Kai (2008)

Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Halvorsen, Jørn Inge (2008)

How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate movements? New international evidence

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Jacobsen, Dag Henning (2008)

Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2008)

Oil price shocks and stock market booms in an oil exporting country

[Report]. Handelshøyskolen BI.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Hungnes, Håvard (2005)

The commodity currency puzzle

[Report]. Department of Economics, University of Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2005)

Monetaty policy and exchange rate interactions in a small open economy

[Report]. Department of Economics, University of Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2005)

Monetary Policy and the Illusionary Exchange Rate Puzzle

[Report]. Department of Economics, University of Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Leitemo, Kai (2005)

Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market

[Report]. Department of Economics, University of Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2003)

A stable demand for money despite financial crisis: The case of Venezuela

[Report]. Memorandum 12, Økonomisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2003)

Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela

[Report]. Memorandum 02, Økonomisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Hungnes, Håvard (2003)

The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate

[Report]. Discussion Papers 340, Statistics Norway.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2003)

Finanspolitikken, om konjunktursvingninger og makroøkonomisk styring

[Academic lecture]. Kurs for lærere i samfunnsøkonomi ved videregående skoler.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2003)

Inflasjonsmål som stabiliseringspolitikk - styring under usikkerhet

[Academic lecture]. Valutaseminaret.

Bjørnland, Hilde C & Hungnes, Håvard (2002)

Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway

[Report]. Økonomisk institutt.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Venezuela

[Academic lecture]. Growth and Business cycles in Theory and Practice.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Fundamental determinants of the long-run real exchange rate

[Academic lecture]. .

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Hva bestemmer realvalutakursen på lang sikt?

[Academic lecture]. .

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Beregning av trender, konjunkturutslag og impliserte effekter på budsjettindikatoren. Rom for forbedringer?

[Academic lecture]. .

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate: The case of Venezuela

[Academic lecture]. 57th European Meeting of the Econometric Society.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2002)

Moderne konjunkturforskning

[Academic lecture]. Det 24. nasjonale forskermøte for økonomer.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)

Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation

[Report]. International Monetary Fund.

This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. However, CPI inflation misrepresents core inflation during some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative non-core (supply) shocks of the late 1980s which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)

VAR Models in Macroeconomic Research

[Academic lecture]. Forelesningsserie i tidserieøkonometri.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (2000)

Detrending Methods and Stylized Facts of Business cycles in Norway

[Academic lecture]. First International Meeting on Economic Cycles.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)

Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks

[Report]. Statistics Norway.

This paper analyses the role of real and nominal shocks in explaining business cycles in a small open economy like that of Norway. In particular, we study the sources behind real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement. Imposing long run restrictions implied by economic theory on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing GDP, unemployment (or price), real wage and the real exchange rate, four structural shocks are identified; Velocity, fiscal, productivity and labour supply shocks. The model is also augmented to allow for oil price shocks. The identified shocks and their impulse responses are consistent with an open economy (Keynesian) model of economic fluctuations, and highlights the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism in a small open and energy based economy. Especially, I have found a plausible sequence of shocks (productivity shocks in the 1970s, velocity shocks in the mid-1980s, productivity and labour supply shocks in the late 1980s, and velocity and fiscal shocks in the early 1990s), which help to explain the evolution of GDP, unemployment, price, real wage and the real exchange rate. The results are robust to alternative specifications of the model and are stable over the sample.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1998)

Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation

[Academic lecture]. Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.

Bjørnland, Hilde C (1997)

Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks

[Academic lecture]. Third International Conference On Financial Econometrics.

Academic Degrees
Year Academic Department Degree
1998 University of Oslo Ph.D Dr. Oecon.
1992 London School of Economics Master of Science
1991 Heriot-Watt University B.A.
Work Experience
Year Employer Job Title
2020 - Present International Association of Applied Econometrics (IAAE) Professor
2008 - Present BI Norwegian Business School Professor
2004 - Present Norges Bank Scientific advisor to the Research Department (part time)
2018 - 2022 BI Norwegian Business School Provost for Research and Academic Resources
2006 - 2008 BI Norwegian Business School Associate Professor
2000 - 2006 University of Oslo Post Doctorate
1998 - 2000 International Monetary Fund Economist
1993 - 1998 Statistics Norway Researcher