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Employee Profile

Julia Skretting

Adjunct Researcher - Department of Economics

Publications

Boug, Pål; von Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad, Cappelen, Ådne, Hammersland, Roger, Hungnes, Håvard, Kolsrud, Dag, Zhulanova Skretting, Julia, Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond Christian (2023)

Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy

Journal of macroeconomics, 76 Doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103524 - Full text in research archive

We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our simulations show that the magnitude of the government spending and labour tax cut multipliers, whether monetary policy is active or passive, is comparable to what is found in the literature. A novel finding from our simulations is that the industry structure is substantially affected by an expansionary fiscal policy, as value added in the non-traded goods sector increases at the expense of value added in the traded goods sector. Moreover, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the mark-ups in the traded goods sector, while the mark-ups are roughly unchanged in the non-traded goods sector. The contraction of activity in the traded goods sector increases when monetary tightening accompanies the fiscal stimulus. Hence, we find that such a policy mix is likely to produce significant de-industrialization in a small open economy with inflation targeting.

Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia (2021)

News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, s. 507- 520. Doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.004 - Full text in research archive

Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors of both inflation and inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the time series features of relevant topics help explain time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we provide a novel estimate of state-dependent information rigidities and present new evidence highlighting the role of the media in understanding inflation expectations and information rigidities.

von Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad; Cappelen, Ådne, Holden, Steinar, Lindstrøm, Eirik Larsen & Zhulanova Skretting, Julia (2022)

COVID-19, tapt verdiskaping og finanspolitikkens rolle. Utredning for Koronakommisjonen.

[Report]. Statistisk sentralbyrå,.

I denne rapporten sammenligner vi verdiskapingen i en referansebane for perioden 2020-2023 slik den ser ut i skrivende stund – ved månedsskiftet januar/februar 2022 – med SSBs prognose for norsk økonomi publisert i slutten av 2019, altså før pandemien. Forskjellen i verdiskaping mellom de to banene kan i all hovedsak tilskrives pandemien og samfunnets reaksjon på den, i form av smitteverntiltak, private aktørers respons, myndighetenes økonomiske tiltak mv. Ifølge våre beregninger førte koronapandemien til en reduksjon i BNP for Fastlands-Norge på 214 milliarder 2019-kroner i perioden fra februar 2020 til og med november 2021, som i skrivende stund er siste måned med publiserte nasjonalregnskapstall. I perioden fra desember 2021 til desember 2023 anslås det ytterligere reduksjon i verdiskapingen målt ved BNP på grunn av pandemien på rundt 53 milliarder 2019-kroner. Anslaget er usikkert og det er basert på beregninger foretatt av SSB i Konjunkturtendensene 2021/4, publisert 3. desember 2021. Samlet beregner vi de totale realøkonomiske kostnadene av pandemien i perioden 2020-2023 målt ved lavere BNP til rundt 270 milliarder 2019-kroner, tilsvarende 8,6 prosent av Fastlands-BNP for 2021.

Boug, Pål; von Brasch, Thomas, Cappelen, Ådne, Hammersland, Roger, Hungnes, Håvard, Kolsrud, Dag, Zhulanova Skretting, Julia, Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond Christian (2022)

Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomic Performance and Industry Structure in a Small Open Economy

[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. SSB - Discussion papers

Bjertnæs, Geir Haakon Malterud; von Brasch, Thomas Rolf Lydersen Lystad, Cappelen, Ådne, Holden, Steinar, Holmøy, Erling, Slettebø, Olav, Sletten, Pål & Zhulanova, Julia (2021)

COVID-19, tapt verdiskaping og finanspolitikkens rolle

[Report]. Statistisk sentralbyrå,.

Academic Degrees
Year Academic Department Degree
2014 Handelshøyskolen i Bergen Master of Science
Work Experience
Year Employer Job Title
2014 - Present BI Norwegian Business School PhD Candidate