Thorvald Haerem earned his Ph.D. at Copenhagen Business School in Denmark and is currently Professor of Organizational Psychology at BI Norwegian Business School. His research interests include technology in organizations, organizational and individual routines, behavioral decision making, and expertise. He has published his research in journals as Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Organizational Studies, and Organization Science.
Teaching areas
Thorvald Haerem is responsible for graduate course in Judgment and Decision Making, Creativity, & Organizational Science at BI Norwegian Business School.
Overconfidence is prevalent despite being linked to various negative outcomes for individuals, organizations, and even societies. To explain this puzzling phenomenon, C. Anderson, Brion, et al. (2012) proposed a status-enhancement theory of overconfidence: Expressing overconfidence helps individuals attain social status. In this registered report, we conducted a direct replication of Study 5 by C. Anderson, Brion, et al. (2012), who found that individual differences in desire for status were positively correlated with being overconfident about one’s task performance relative to others. We also tested the generalizability of the key relationship to a different measure of desire for status. Furthermore, we complemented traditional significance testing with equivalence testing and Bayesian analysis to test a set of null hypotheses in the original study. We found support for the status-enhancement hypothesis: Desire for status had a positive association with overconfidence using both the original measure of desire for status (β = 0.19, 95% CI [0.09, 0.28]) and the alternative measure (β = 0.31, 95% CI [0.22, 0.39]). A follow-up extension study aimed to test this relationship causally by manipulating the social context where status motives may be stronger (a competitive vs. cooperative context) and testing whether such an effect is driven by state-level desire for status. We did not find a direct causal effect of social context on overconfidence but an indirect association via state-level desire for status: A competitive (vs. cooperative) group context increased desire for status (β = 0.34, 95% CI [0.18, 0.51]), which in turn predicted greater overconfidence (β = 0.38, 95% CI [0.31, 0.46]). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)
The concept of a warm person has played a key role in western social psychological research, particularly in how people perceive others. Williams and Bargh (2008; Study 1) found that individuals holding a cup of warm beverage perceived the individuals they faced as psychologically warmer than those who held a cup of cold beverage. In this article, we set out to replicate and extend these findings by exploring whether various factors modify the effect of physical and social warmth. Specifically, we tested three moderating variables: participants’ awareness of the purpose of the experiment, warmth of participants’ personality and the target person’s gender. We found no main effect of physical warmth, and very little evidence for any moderating effects. It is clear from this and other recent studies that the embodiment effect is not simple to replicate and, therefore, is difficult to exploit for practical purposes.
If you are trying to persuade someone, expressing your opinion with certainty intuitively seems like a good strategy to maximize your influence. However, Karmarkar and Tormala (2010) found that the effectiveness of this tactic depends on expertise. In three experiments, Karmarkar and Tormala found support for an incongruity hypothesis, whereby non-expert sources can gain interest and influence by expressing certainty, while expert sources can increase persuasion by expressing uncertainty. In this Registered Report, we conducted a high-powered (N = 1018) direct replication of Experiment 2 by Karmarkar and Tormala (2010). In a consumer behaviour context, the original study examined whether source expertise moderated the positive effect of source certainty on the persuasive impact of a restaurant recommendation. The present replication failed to find support for the incongruity hypothesis, ηp2 = 0.00 [0.00, 0.02]: expressing certainty had a positive but non-significant effect for non-experts, d = 0.10 [−0.10, 0.34], and a positive effect for experts, d = 0.28 [0.03, 0.52]. Instead, the results supported the competing confidence heuristic hypothesis that expressed certainty would have a positive effect on persuasion, irrespective of source expertise, d = 0.18 [0.01, 0.36]. Extending the original work, we (1) controlled for the reason given for (un)certainty, and (2) examined need for closure as a potential individual difference moderator. The results indicated robust support for the confidence heuristic d = 0.25, [0.12, 0.37], but neither reason for (un)certainty nor need for closure moderated the effect as hypothesized. All materials, data, and code are available on: https://osf.io/hbjyv/
Mayiwar, Lewend; Hærem, Thorvald & Løhre, Erik (2024)
Self-Distancing Regulates the Effect of Incidental Anger (vs. Fear) on Affective Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Emotions integral to a task are often adaptive, particularly in situations where outcomes and probabilities are not known. However, decisions are also influenced by emotions that arise from situations unrelated to the task. This is especially the case with negative emotions like fear and anger, which also tend to be accompanied by ruminative thinking that might divert decision-makers' attention from the task at hand. In two preregistered experiments, we show how self-distancing regulates the influence of incidental anger (vs. fear) on decision-making under uncertainty. Participants recalled and reflected on a fear-related or anger-related event from either a self-immersed or self-distanced perspective. Next, they completed a task that is commonly used to measure affective decision-making under uncertainty, the Iowa Gambling Task. The results in both experiments indicated that self-immersed angry (vs. fearful) decision-makers were significantly slower to avoid the risky, disadvantageous decks. These findings demonstrate how the ways in which we process negative emotional events shape their carryover effects in decision-making under uncertainty and point to self-distancing as a potential tool to control incidental emotional influences.
Akinci, Cinla; Akstinaite, Vita, Bakken, Bjørn Tallak, Dias, Suzi Ellen Ferreira, Fuller, Robert M, Grant, Michael, Hodgkinson, Gerard Paul, Hærem, Thorvald, Lizuka, Edson Zadao, Nilsson, Fredrik, Sadler-Smith, Eugene, Samba, Codou, Sinclair, Marta, Vera, Dusuya & Williams, David W. (2023)
Intuition in Organizations: New Theoretical and Methodological Perspectives
The impact of intuitive and analytic cognitive styles on task performance is a much-debated subject in the scientific discourse on decision-making. In the literature on decision-making under time pressure, intuition has been regarded as a fast and frugal tool. At the same time, the heuristics and biases tradition sees intuition as a source of errors, implying that more analytic decision-makers are less biased and better performers. We conducted two studies of the effects of interplay between intuitive and analytic cognitive styles on decision-making in a simulated wicked learning environment. The results of the first study revealed that the high-performing individuals were those who exhibited a strong preference for both cognitive styles, as well as those who showed a lack of preference for both. Individuals with a strong preference for only one of the styles were outperformed. In the second study, we replicated these findings in a team context. Post-hoc, we found that cognitive ability correlated highly with performance for the two high-performing style combinations but not for the two low-performing style combinations. Our results indicate that flexible style preferences boost the effect of cognitive ability, while strong preferences for a single style may entrench even those with high cognitive abilities.
Mayiwar, Lewend; Hærem, Thorvald & Furnham, Adrian (2023)
Individual differences in fear and self-distancing predict information processing via problem construal
In two preregistered online studies (NTotal = 984; Prolific), we examined how individual differences in fear and self-distancing predict information processing in decision-making involving risk in a business scenario. Dispositional fear was positively related to urgent and affective intuitive processing and negatively related to analytical processing. Self-distancing was positively related to analytical processing. These relations occurred indirectly via problem construal. Dispositional fear predicted less concrete problem construal, which in turn predicted more urgent intuitive processing and less analytical processing. In contrast, habitual self-distancing predicted more concrete problem construal, which in turn predicted more analytical processing and less urgent intuitive processing. Surprisingly, dispositional fear had a negative indirect relation with affective intuitive processing via more abstract problem construal, and habitual self-distancing had a positive indirect relation with affective processing via more concrete problem construal. Overall, these findings suggest that, in contrast to emotionally regulated decision-makers, fearful decision-makers’ tendency to construe problems less concretely (i.e., more abstractly) might hinder their ability to concretize and analyze problems involving risk.
Purpose: We draw on arousal-based models to develop and test a model of open-office noise and information processing. Specifically, we examined whether open-office noise changes how people process information and whether such a change has consequences for task performance. Design/Methodology/Approach: In a laboratory experiment, we randomly assigned participants (107 students at a business school) to either a silent condition or a condition that exposed them to open-office noise (irrelevant speech) while completing a task that requires cognitive flexibility. We measured participants’ physiological arousal and the extent to which they processed information intuitively and analytically during the task. Findings: Open-office noise increased urgent processing and decreased analytical processing, which led to a respective decrease and increase in task performance. In line with a neuroscientific account of cognitive processing, an increase in arousal (subjective and physiological) drove the detrimental effect of open-office noise on task performance. Practical Implications: Understanding the information-processing consequences of open-office noise can help managers make more informed decisions about workplace environments that facilitate performance. Originality: Our study is one of the first to examine the indirect effects of open-office noise on task performance through intuitive and analytical processing, while simultaneously testing and providing support for the accompanying physiological mechanism.
Hærem, Thorvald; Valaker, Sigmund, Lofquist, Eric & Bakken, Bjørn T. (2022)
Multiteam Systems Handling Time-Sensitive Targets: Developing Situation Awareness in Distributed and Co-located Settings
There is an increasing interest in how to organize operations carried out by multiteam systems (MTS). Large MTS typically operate with a dedicated integration team, responsible for coordinating the operation. We report a study of a military multiteam system that prosecute time-sensitive targets. We asked whether and how the integration team’s efficiency depends on its communication setting. Specifically, we studied how a co-located vs. a distributed communications setting influenced the shared situation awareness and whether the shared situation awareness again influenced the outcome of the decision processes. We found that performance fell when the integration team shifted from a co-located to a distributed setting. The fall in performance seemed to be mediated by a corresponding fall in situation awareness. Moreover, while the performance improved for each run in the co-located setting, we did not see such learning in the distributed setting. Qualitative observations revealed that misunderstandings lasted longer in a distributed configuration than in a co-located setting. We found that situation awareness at level 3 was the only level of situation awareness significant for predicting all dimensions of performance. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.
We use pattern mining tools from computer science to engage a classic problem in organizational theory: the relation between routinization and task performance. We develop and operationalize new measures of two key characteristics of organizational routines: repertoire and routinization. Repertoire refers to the number of recognizable patterns in a routine, and routinization refers to the fraction of observed actions that fit those patterns. We use these measures to develop a novel theory that predicts task performance based on the size of repertoire, the degree of routinization, and enacted complexity. We test this theory in two settings that differ in their programmability: crisis management and invoice management. We find that repertoire and routinization are important determinants of task performance in both settings, but with opposite effects. In both settings, however, the effect of repertoire and routinization is mediated by enacted complexity. This theoretical contribution is enabled by the methodological innovation of pattern mining, which allows us to treat routines as a collection of sequential patterns or paths. This innovation also allows us to clarify the relation of routinization and complexity, which are often confused because the terms routine and routinization connote simplicity. We demonstrate that routinization and enacted complexity are distinct constructs, conceptually and empirically. It is possible to have a high degree of routinization and complex enactments that vary each time a task is performed. This is because enacted complexity depends on the repertoire of patterns and how those patterns are combined to enact a task.
Purpose –This paper aims to systematically review the extant research on social psychological aspects of civil-military inter-organizational collaboration, particularly in a total defense context. Design/methodology/approach –A systematic scoping studies review was performed. Peer-reviewed articles were searched in PsycInfo and Sociological Abstracts. Inclusion criteria were met by 25 articles. Findings –Four higher-order categories with underpinning categories were derived in the analysis. They were modeled as follows: antecedent conditions affect, informal processes and practical efforts, which, in turn, affect inter-organizational trust and collaboration. These higher-order categories are all influenced by formal organizational aspects and the society in which they arefound. Research limitations/implications –The existing literature covering the chosen study focus is limited. Further studies are needed and thepresented model can serve asa road map. Practical implications –Aseries of questions derived from the categories of the model is presented. The questions are included as a tool for practical reflection for collaborating actors in common education, training or exercise settings or in after-action reviews. Originality/value –The focus on social psychological aspects of civil-military inter-organizational collaboration, particularly in a total defense context, is new. The suggested relationship between superior themes addsknowledgetoaresearchfielddominatedbysociological andpolitical science approaches. Keywords Civil-military, Inter-organizational collaboration, Total defense, Leadership, Social psychological, Scoping review PapertypeLiterature review
Lounsbury, Michael; Anderson, Deborah A. & Spee, Paul (red.). On Practice and Institution: New Empirical Directions
Bakken, Bjørn Tallak & Hærem, Thorvald (2020)
Whistleblowing: Making a Weak Signal Stronger
Svenkerud, Peer Jacob; Sørnes, Jan-Oddvar & Browning, Larry (red.). Whistleblowing, Communication and Consequences: Lessons from The Norwegian National Lottery
This paper uses a simulation to build new theory about complexity and phase change in processes that are supported by digital technologies. We know that digitized processes can drift (change incrementally over time). We simulate this phenomenon by incrementally adding and removing edges from a network that represents the process. The simulation demonstrates that incremental change can lead to a state of self-organized criticality. As the process approaches this state, further incremental change can precipitate nonlinear bursts in process complexity and significant changes in process structure. Digital technology can be designed and used to influence the likelihood and severity of these transformative phase changes. For example, the simulation predicts that systems with adaptive programming are prone to phase changes, while systems with deterministic programming are not. We use the simulation to generate a set of theoretical propositions about the effects of digitization that will be testable in empirical research.
Valaker, Sigmund; Hærem, Thorvald & Bakken, Bjørn T. (2018)
Connecting the dots in counterterrorism: The consequences of communication setting for shared situation awareness and team performance
Elite sport organizations invest considerable efforts in continuous evaluation of training and development. A key challenge is to promote athletes’′ reliable learning. This requires critical reflection. In this paper we look at how highly successful elite cross-country skiers reflect on their training. The theoretical framework of organizational mindfulness and reliable learning directs attention to three key mechanisms that influence reflection: socialization, sensemaking and interpretation. We identified an inherent tension in the way athletes are socialized into elite athletes. On the one hand, they internalize strong beliefs in key success factors. Such beliefs serve as a normative framework that provides commitment and enthusiasm. However, strong beliefs may weaken the athletes’ ability to notice ambiguous feedback signals in complex training situations. We found four different styles of reflection, but only one of them is consistent with requirements for reliable learning.
Hærem, Thorvald; Pentland, Brian T. & Miller, Kent (2015)
This paper uses data on invoice processing in four organizations to distinguish empirically between two competing theories of organizational routines. One theory predicts that routines should generate patterns of action that are few in number and stable over time, and that atypical patterns of action are driven primarily by exceptional inputs. The competing theory predicts the opposite. By modeling the routines as networks of action and using a first-order Markov model to test for stationarity, we find support for the competing theory. The routines generated hundreds of unique patterns that changed significantly during a five-month period without any apparent external intervention. Changes did not appear to reflect improved performance or learning. Furthermore, we found that exogenous factors (such as large invoices from unusual vendors) are not associated with atypical patterns of action, but endogenous factors (such as the experience of the participants) are. We also found that increased automation can increase variation under some circumstances. These findings offer empirical support for endogenous change in organizational routines and underscore the importance of the sociomaterial context in understanding stability and change.
Bakken, Bjørn T. & Hærem, Thorvald (2011)
Intuition in crisis management: the secret weapon of successful decision makers?
Sinclair, Marta (red.). Handbook of Intuition Reserach
Hærem, Thorvald; Kuvaas, Bård, Bakken, Bjørn T. & Karlsen, Tone (2011)
Do military decision makers behave as predicted by prospect theory?
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 24, s. 482- 497. Doi: 10.1002/bdm.704
Rau, Devaki & Hærem, Thorvald (2010)
Applying an organizational learning perspective to new technology deployment by technological gatekeepers: A theoretical model and key issues for future research
Explaining differences in risk-seeking behaviors between and within organizations over time
[Academic lecture]. The NEON conference.
Mayiwar, Lewend & Hærem, Thorvald (2022)
Self-Distancing Moderates the Effect of Incidental Fear vs. Anger on Risk Taking and Loss Aversion
[Academic lecture]. Academy of Management Annual Meeting.
Studies have shown that incidental and normatively irrelevant emotions can carry over and bias decisions. However, people respond to and manage their emotions in different ways. Thus, incidental emotional influences might depend on how individuals regulate their emotions. In a preregistered experiment, we examined how the regulation of fear and anger impacts risk-taking and information processing in a task that mimics complexity and uncertainty. Drawing on the appraisal tendency framework, we propose that fear and anger lead to opposite effects on risk-taking and that these effects are moderated by decision makers’ use of a tactic of emotion regulation known as self-distancing. Participants were asked to recall and describe a fear-inducing or anger-inducing event from either an immersed or self-distanced perspective. Next, they completed the Iowa Gambling Task for our measure of risk-taking. A series of linear mixed random-effects models supported our hypotheses. First, incidental fear reduced risk-taking relative to incidental anger, and this effect reversed among participants who engaged in self-distancing. Second, self-distancing reduced reliance on intuitive information processing during the task. Third, analytical (but not intuitive) processing was negatively related to risk-taking. Finally, exploratory analyses revealed that fearful and angry people’s choices were driven more by their sensitivity to losses and gains than their sensitivity to risk. Incidental fear led to an aversion to decks associated with frequent losses.
Hærem, Thorvald; Buch, Robert & Andersen, Ingvild (2022)
Organizations' Role in Shaping Risk-Seeking Behavior
[Academic lecture]. The 20th EAWOP congress.
Mayiwar, Lewend & Hærem, Thorvald (2021)
Arousal and Risk Taking: the Moderating Role of Reappraisal
[Academic lecture]. Academy of Management.
Researchers have provided important insight into the cognitive and emotional aspects of risk taking. In the present study we investigated the role of incidental physiological arousal - an affective component that has received relatively little attention and cognitive processing. Moreover, to gain further insight into the relation between arousal and risk taking, we examined the moderating role of habitual cognitive reappraisal. We found that incidental physiological arousal and intuitive processing predicted a higher likelihood of risk taking, whereas analytical processing predicted a lower likelihood of risk taking. Furthermore, we found that the relationship between physiological arousal and risk taking was stronger among individuals low on habitual cognitive reappraisal. Overall, the present study contributes to dual process theories of decision making as well the growing line of research on emotion regulation and risk taking. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.
Appendix G: Cognitive and organizational challenges in a navigation team. In: Report on the collision between the Frigate HMNS Helge Ingstad and the oil tanker TS Sola outside the Sture Terminal in the Heltefjord in Hordaland county.
[Report]. Statens Havarikommisjon.
Hærem, Thorvald; Valaker, Sigmund & Lofquist, Eric (2018)
Better Late than Never? Communication Media and Adaptive Team Performance
[Academic lecture]. Academy of Management Meeting.
Hansson, Mathias; Hærem, Thorvald & Pentland, Brian T. (2018)
Simplify or complexify? Patterns of action as antecedents of team performance.
[Academic lecture]. Academy of Management Annual Conferance.
