Simula@BI - Modelling power markets in Europe towards 2030: Challenges and Results

Modelling energy systems with high penetration of renewables sources (RES) poses an increasing number of challenges. In particular, we need to explore the space of the possible weather outcomes, including possible weather extremes.

In this exercise, both the space and time constraints are of importance, i.e. the weather outcomes need to be correlated across different energy markets in space, and need to be expressed at the most possible granular resolution in time.

We propose a methodology based on actuals and reanalysis weather data (using the ERA5 dataset from ECMWF), that aims to describe possible weather scenarios combined with RES capacity increase in order to have a more realistic modelling of the extremes in 2030. We combine the weather modelling with a detailed modelling of the nuclear and thermal stack in Europe and with the policy assumptions included in the recent RePowerEU document in a joint optimization framework.

Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the magnitude of the future flexibility systems that are needed to guarantee the security of supply of the European power system under different demand assumptions.

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