Jorgen Randers (born 1945) is professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School. He works on issues of the future, especially related to sustainability, climate, energy, and system dynamics. Professor Randers lectures and provides advice all over the world, and increasingly in China.
Jorgen Randers has spent one third of his life in academia, one third in business, and on third in the NGO world. He was President of the BI Norwegian Business School BI 1981 – 89, and Deputy Director General of WWF International (World Wide Fund for Nature) in Switzerland 1994 – 99. In 2005-6 he chaired the Royal Commission that presented a plan for how Norway can cut is climate gas emissions by two thirds by 2050. He has been member of the sustainability council of three multinationals (BT, Dow and Astra-Zeneca).
He has written a number of books and scientific papers, starting with co-authoring The Limits to Growth in 1972. His recent writings include 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years in 2012, Reinventing Prosperity with Graeme Maxton in 2016, and Transformation is feasible! with Johan Rockstrøm et al in 2018.
He has received many prizes and awards. He is a full member of the Club of Rome and is the founding chair of the China Chapter of the Club of Rome.
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and long-term declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sector-economic variables. We find that rebuilding by investing moderately in green offshore energy production could reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators for energy transitioning in producer countries.
Collste, David; Cornell, Sarah E., Randers, Jørgen, Rockström, Johan & Stoknes, Per Espen (2021)
Human well-being in the Anthropocene: Limits to growth
Transformation of the world towards sustainability in line with the 2030 Agenda requires progress on multiple dimensions of human well-being. We track development of relevant indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1–7 against gross domestic product (GDP) per person in seven world regions and the world as a whole. Across the regions, we find uniform development patterns where SDGs 1–7 – and therefore main human needs – are achieved at around US$15,000 measured in 2011 US$ purchasing power parity (PPP).
Randers, Jørgen & Golüke, Ulrich (2020)
An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020
The world agreed to achieve 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Nine planetary boundaries set an upper limit to Earth system impacts of human activity in the long run. Conventional efforts to achieve the 14 socio-economic goals will raise pressure on planetary boundaries, moving the world away from the three environmental SDGs. We have created a simple model, Earth3, to measure how much environmental damage follows from achievement of the 14 socio-economic goals, and we propose an index to track effects on people's wellbeing. Extraordinary efforts will be needed to achieve all SDGs within planetary boundaries.
Randers, Jørgen (2016)
How Fast Will China Grow Towards 2030? And what about the US?
World Economics, 17(2), s. 63- 78.
Randers, Jørgen & Maxton, Graeme (2016)
Ein prozent ist genug. Mit wenig wachstum soziale ungleichheit, arbeitslosigkeit und klimawandel bekämpfen
oekom verlag.
Randers, Jørgen; Göluke, Ulrich, Wenstøp, Fred & Wenstøp, Søren (2016)
A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100
She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation [Tidsskrift]
Randers, Jørgen (2018)
Report sets out five-fold path to saving humanity
China Daily [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen & Stoknes, Per Espen (2018)
Smartest for kloden
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (2017)
How Western civilization could collapse
BBC [Internett]
Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Demokratin måste pausas för att lösa klimatkrisen
Svenska Dagbladet [Avis]
Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Vi må slutte med olje, kull og gass
Ingeniørenes stemme [Fagblad]
Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Pessimisten vs optimisten
Dagbladet Magasinet [Avis]
Randers, Jørgen (2016)
Forskningsaktivisten
forskning.no [Internett]
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
Fare for 40 år med lav vekst
Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.) [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (2013)
Deltagelse i 8 radio og TV programmer om klima, energi, og fremtiden - i løpet av 2013
Radio og TV [Radio]
Randers, Jørgen (2013)
Should paid work be rationed?
The Guardian [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen & Sand, Gunnar (2013)
Ny giv for CCS (CO2 fangst og lagring)
Teknisk Ukeblad [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (2013)
På stø kurs mot pluss to grader Celsius i 2052
Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.) [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (1)
Oljen blir verdiløs
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (1)
Kortsiktighet i system: Demokrati og kapitalisme
Morgenbladet [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen & Røkke, Nils Anders (1)
Tid for trinn tre
Dagens næringsliv [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen (1)
The Real Message of The Limits to Growth A Plea for Forward-Looking Global Policy
GAIA [Kronikk]
Randers, Jørgen & Kellerhoff, Till (2024)
Tax the Rich. Warum die Reichen zahlen müssen, wenn wir die Welt retten wollen.
[Non-fiction book]. oekom verlag.
Stoknes, Per Espen; Aslaksen, Iulie, Golüke, Ulrich, Randers, Jørgen & Garnåsjordet, Per Arild (2021)
Plausible futures for the Norwegian Offshore Energy Sector: Business as Usual, Harvest or Rebuild?
[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Discussion papers
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country’s economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning.
Det er ikke én som må gjøre alt. Alle må gjøre litt. Individuelle initiativ er ikke nok. Her kreves kollektiv respons. Her er det ikke nok å gjøre sitt beste. Her må man gjøre det som trengs.
Randers, Jørgen (2018)
China and the World in 2050
[Academic lecture]. China Development Forum - Beijing.
Sustained deficit spending to clean the environment
[Academic lecture]. International System Dynamics Conference.
Stoknes, Per Espen; Jørgen, Randers, Rockström, Johan, Randers, Jørgen, Golüke, Ulrich, Collste, David & Cornell, Sarah E. (2018)
Transformation is Feasible - How to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries
[Report]. Stockholm Resilience Center.
If the world’s nations continue with the same efforts as in the recent decades we will not achieve SDGs by 2030, nor 2050. By 2030, in the business-as-usual scenario, the world’s success score on SDGs will be only 10 out of 17, up from 9 in 2015. The main problems are that satisfying the social SDGs with conventional policy tools will lead to very large human footprints in terms of resource use and pollution outputs, and to increasing inequity. The state of the Earth’s planetary boundaries (PBs) will be further in the red, high-risk zone particularly with regards to global warming, biodiversity loss, air pollution and toxic entities in nature. There is high risk for pushing the Earth’s life supporting systems beyond irreversible trigger-points by 2050.
Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Let the poor world grow
[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. Futuribili: Rivista di studi sul futuro e di previsione sociale, 22(1) Doi: 10.13137/1971-0720/15729
Randers, Jørgen & Maxton, Graeme (2017)
Solving the human sustainability problem in short-termist societies
[Article in business/trade/industry journal]. The journal of population and sustainability, 1(2), s. 11- 22.
The core of the 2052 model - A general model of a modern capitalist economy, covering real and financial dynamics
[Academic lecture]. International system dynamics conference 2017.
Weizsäcker, Ernst U. von; Wijkman, Anders & Randers, Jørgen (2017)
Come on! Capitalism, short-termism, population and the destruction of the planet: A report to the club of Rome
[Scientific book]. Springer.
Current worldwide trends are not sustainable. The Club of Rome’s warnings published in the book Limits to Growth are still valid. Remedies that are acceptable for the great majority tend to make things worse. We seem to be in a philosophical crisis. Pope Francis says it clearly: our common home is in deadly danger. Analyzing the philosophical crisis, the book comes to the conclusion that the world may need a “new enlightenment”; one that is not based solely on doctrine, but instead addresses a balance between humans and nature, as well as a balance between markets and the state, and the short versus long term. To do this we need to leave behind working in ”silos” in favor of a more systemic approach that will require us to rethink the organization of science and education. However, we have to act now; the world cannot wait until 7.6 billion people have struggled to reach a new enlightenment. This book is full of optimistic case studies and policy proposals that will lead us back to a trajectory of sustainability. But it is also necessary to address the taboo topic of population increase. Countries with a stable population fare immensely better than those with continued increase. Finally, we are presenting an optimistic book from the Club of Rome.
Randers, Jørgen (2015)
I energipolitikken krever flertallet billige løsninger
Andreassen, Laila; Hauge, Eivind Hiis, Sand, Gunnar & Dyrhaug, Thomas (red.). Energi, teknologi og klima - utfordringer og handlingsrom
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
2052 - Japan: a global world leader in increasing citizen's well-being during slow GDP growth and declining population
[Popular scientific article]. Fole, 2, s. 2- 5.
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
Compulsory Vacation: Reducing the Human Ecological Footprint Through More Annual Leave
Visser, Wayne (red.). Disrupting the Future: Great Ideas for Creating a Much better World
Randers, Jørgen (2014)
Living in overshoot: A forecast and the desire to have it wrong
Kramer, Gert Jan & Vermeer, Bram (red.). The colours of energy: Essays on the future of our energy system
Rees, Daniel & Randers, Jørgen (2013)
The «perceived progress» indicator – measuring the rate of change in subjective well-being