BI Research Centre

Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP)

CAMP is established to bring together economists working on applied macroeconomic issues, with special emphasis on energy economics.

Visit our blog to find announcements of the latest research and discussions from our network on relevant topics.

2024

04/2025	Re-visiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Monetary Policy
03/2025	Bayesian Nonparametric Inference in Bank Business Models with Transientand Persistent Cost Inefficiency
02/2025	Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
01/2025	Asymmetric uncertainty: Nowcasting using skewness in real-time data
12/2024	Flexible Negative Binomial Mixtures for Credible Mode Inference in Heterogeneous Count Data from Finance, Economics and Bioinformatics
12/2024	Forecasting oil and gas Prices: A Model Combination Approach
12/2024	Piecing the puzzle: real exchangerates and long-run fundamentals
11/2024	A Constrained Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model for Monetary Policy Analysis
08/2024	Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations
05/2024	Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes
02/2024	NEWS: PhD course: “Introduction to Bayesian Econometrics” With guest lecturer: Professor Dimitris Korobilis
02/2024	Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility
01/2024	The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve
01/2024	Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption

2023

12/2023	Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective
12/2023	Risky news and credit market sentiment
10/2023	Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies
10/2023	Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
10/2023	Bayesian Mode Inference for Discrete Distributions in Economics and Finance
10/2023	Monetary policy shocks and exchange rate dynamics in small open economies
09/2023	A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency
09/2023	The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market
08/2023	The interplay between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy
08/2023	Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
08/2023	Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis
06/2023	Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations
03/2023	Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach
03/2023	Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring
02/2023	The Economic Consequences ofEffective Carbon Taxes
01/2023	Dominant Drivers of National Inflation

2022

12/2022	The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions
12/2022	Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers
12/2022	Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending
11/2022	Monetary policy when export revenues drop
09/2022	Local economic development and oil discoveries
08/2022	Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia
07/2022	FNI Update June – FNI Signals Trouble
03/2022	FNI Update February – FNI around Trend
03/2022	Quantifying supply-side climate policies
01/2022	The household effects of mortgage regulation
01/2022	FNI Update December – FNI Around Trend Again

2021

12/2021	FNI Update November – FNI is Falling
11/2021	The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil
09/2021	The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data
09/2021	FNI Update August – A Negative Development
08/2021	FNI Update July – Slightly Above Trend
07/2021	FNI Upgraded, Updated and at Trend Levels
06/2021	Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs
06/2021	Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
06/2021	FNI Update May – Updated Algorithm
03/2021	FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
03/2021	Annual Report 2020
03/2021	JITED Best Paper Prize 2020
02/2021	FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
02/2021	The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy
01/2021	OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets
01/2021	Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers
01/2021	Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes
01/2021	FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 below trend

2020

12/2020	FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
12/2020	Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
11/2020	Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia
11/2020	FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
10/2020	News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
10/2020	FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
09/2020	Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19
09/2020	Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting
09/2020	FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down
07/2020	Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices
07/2020	Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona
06/2020	Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
06/2020	Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving
05/2020	Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?
05/2020	Extra FNI Update: Approaching the Trough
04/2020	Extra FNI Update: Is the Worst Behind us?
04/2020	Extra FNI Update: Lowest level since early 1990s
04/2020	Hvor mye koster koronakrisen? (in Norwegian)
04/2020	FNI Update March – as Serious as During the Financial Crisis
03/2020	Extra FNI Update: The impact of the Corona Crisis
03/2020	The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway
03/2020	FNI Update February – The Business Cycle is Weakening
02/2020	Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality
02/2020	FNI Update January - Continuing Around Trend
01/2020	FNI Update December – Entering 2020 around Trend
01/2020	Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

2019

12/2019	FNI Update November – The Index is Stabilizing
12/2019	OPEC’s crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment
11/2019	Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model
11/2019	Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction
11/2019	FNI Update October – The Fall Continues
10/2019	A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency
10/2019	Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
10/2019	FNI Update September – Signalling a Contraction
09/2019	FNI Update August – Increased Uncertainty
08/2019	FNI Update July - A Stronger Business Cycle
07/2019	Annual Report 2018
07/2019	FNI Update June – Growth Above Trend
06/2019	On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics
06/2019	Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms
06/2019	FNI Update May – The Business Cycle is around Trend
05/2019	News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
05/2019	New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets
05/2019	CAMP and CAMA Conference on Climate, Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
05/2019	FNI Update April - A Stable Economy
04/2019	FNI Update March – Unchanged Economic Outlook
03/2019	FNI Update February – Stable Economic Outlook
02/2019	Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting
02/2019	FNI Update January - A Weaker Business Cycle
01/2019	FNI Update December – An economic slowdown?

2018

12/2018	Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences
12/2018	Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models
12/2018	International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach
12/2018	On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach
12/2018	A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models
12/2018	FNI Update November – The index remains stable through the month
11/2018	State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching
11/2018	FNI Update October – Is the business cycle turning?
10/2018	The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S Economy Spillovers and Time Varying Effects
10/2018	Welcome