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BI Research Centre

Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP)

CAMP is established to bring together economists working on applied macroeconomic issues, with special emphasis on energy economics.

Visit our blog to find announcements of the latest research and discussions from our network on relevant topics.  

2023

03/2023 Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach
03/2023 Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring
02/2023 The Economic Consequences ofEffective Carbon Taxes
01/2023 Dominant Drivers of National Inflation

2022

12/2022 The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions
12/2022 Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers
12/2022 Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending
11/2022 Monetary policy when export revenues drop
09/2022 Local economic development and oil discoveries
08/2022 Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia
07/2022 FNI Update June – FNI Signals Trouble
03/2022 FNI Update February – FNI around Trend
03/2022 Quantifying supply-side climate policies
01/2022 The household effects of mortgage regulation
01/2022 FNI Update December – FNI Around Trend Again

2021

12/2021 FNI Update November – FNI is Falling
11/2021 The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil
09/2021 The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data
09/2021 FNI Update August – A Negative Development
08/2021 FNI Update July – Slightly Above Trend
07/2021 FNI Upgraded, Updated and at Trend Levels
06/2021 Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs
06/2021 Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
06/2021 FNI Update May – Updated Algorithm
03/2021 FNI Update February – FNI Index on Trend
03/2021 Annual Report 2020
03/2021 JITED Best Paper Prize 2020
02/2021 FNI Update January – Decreasing and Below Trend
02/2021 The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy
01/2021 OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets
01/2021 Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers
01/2021 Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes
01/2021 FNI Update December – Leaving 2020 below trend

2020

12/2020 FNI Update November – Great Uncertainty in the Estimates
12/2020 Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
11/2020 Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia
11/2020 FNI Update October – A W-Shaped Recession?
10/2020 News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
10/2020 FNI Update September – Continued Low Growth
09/2020 Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19
09/2020 Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting
09/2020 FNI Update August – Growth has Slowed Down
07/2020 Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices
07/2020 Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona
06/2020 Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
06/2020 Extra FNI Update: Still well below trend, but improving
05/2020 Extra FNI Update: U, V, or Still Declining?
05/2020 Extra FNI Update: Approaching the Trough
04/2020 Extra FNI Update: Is the Worst Behind us?
04/2020 Extra FNI Update: Lowest level since early 1990s
04/2020 Hvor mye koster koronakrisen? (in Norwegian)
04/2020 FNI Update March – as Serious as During the Financial Crisis
03/2020 Extra FNI Update: The impact of the Corona Crisis
03/2020 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway
03/2020 FNI Update February – The Business Cycle is Weakening
02/2020 Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality
02/2020 FNI Update January - Continuing Around Trend
01/2020 FNI Update December – Entering 2020 around Trend
01/2020 Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

2019

12/2019 FNI Update November – The Index is Stabilizing
12/2019 OPEC’s crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment
11/2019 Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model
11/2019 Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction
11/2019 FNI Update October – The Fall Continues
10/2019 A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency
10/2019 Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
10/2019 FNI Update September – Signalling a Contraction
09/2019 FNI Update August – Increased Uncertainty
08/2019 FNI Update July - A Stronger Business Cycle
07/2019 Annual Report 2018
07/2019 FNI Update June – Growth Above Trend
06/2019 On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics
06/2019 Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms
06/2019 FNI Update May – The Business Cycle is around Trend
05/2019 News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
05/2019 New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets
05/2019 CAMP and CAMA Conference on Climate, Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy
05/2019 FNI Update April - A Stable Economy
04/2019 FNI Update March – Unchanged Economic Outlook
03/2019 FNI Update February – Stable Economic Outlook
02/2019 Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting
02/2019 FNI Update January - A Weaker Business Cycle
01/2019 FNI Update December – An economic slowdown?

2018

12/2018 Growth with Age-Dependent Preferences
12/2018 Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models
12/2018 International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach
12/2018 On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach
12/2018 A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models
12/2018 FNI Update November – The index remains stable through the month
11/2018 State Space Models with Endogenous Regime Switching
11/2018 FNI Update October – Is the business cycle turning?
10/2018 The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S Economy Spillovers and Time Varying Effects
10/2018 Welcome