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Isachsen, Arne Jon & Gylfason, Thorvaldur
(2022)
Awakening from the Chinese Dream
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Bruno, Lars Christian; Eloranta, Jari, Ojala, Jari & Pehkonen, Jaakko
(2022)
Road to unity? Nordic economic convergence in the long run
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Byrne, David P.; Imai, Susumu, Jain, Neelam & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2022)
Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data
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Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2022)
Estimating Pricing Rigidities in Bilateral Transactions Markets
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Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål
(2022)
Factor analyzing ordinal items requires substantive knowledge of response marginals
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Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune
(2022)
Paying for pharmaceuticals: uniform pricing versus two-part tariffs
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Boppart, Timo; Harmenberg, Karl, Krusell, Per & Olsson, Jonna
(2022)
Integrated epi-econ assessment of vaccination
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Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André Kallåk
(2022)
Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets
Show summary
The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock—expansionary versus contractionary—and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elasticities. In supply elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks. The opposite holds true in supply inelastic areas. We attribute this to asymmetric housing supply adjustments.
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Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2022)
A Linear Estimator for Factor-Augmented Fixed-T Panels With Endogenous Regressors
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Grønneberg, Steffen; Foldnes, Njål & Marcoulides, Katerina
(2022)
covsim: An R Package for Simulating Non-normal Data for Structural Equation Models Using Copulas
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Costa, Francisco; Nunes, Leticia & Sanches, Fabio Miessi
(2022)
How to Attract Physicians to Underserved Areas? Policy Recommendations from a Structural Model
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Golombek, Rolf; Gaure, Simen, Kittelsen, Sverre, Ma, Lin, Aune, Finn Roar & Greaker, Mads
(2022)
Promoting CCS in Europe: A case for green strategic trade policy?
Energy Journal.
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Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin, Yang, Bixuan, Gephart, Jessica A., Smith, Martin D., Anderson, James L., Camp, Edward V., Garlock, Taryn, Love, David C. & Oglend, Atle
(2022)
China’s seafood imports – not for domestic consumption?
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Galle, Simon; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres & Yi, Moises
(2022)
Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade
Show summary
We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labor reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis et al. (2012). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labor force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie & van Dijk, Herman K.
(2022)
Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
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Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels & Rijkers, Bob
(2022)
Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts
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Røed Larsen, Erling
(2021)
Intra-Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market*
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Fiva, Jon H.; Halse, Askill Harkjerr & Smith, Daniel Markham
(2021)
Local Representation and Voter Mobilization in Closed-list Proportional Representation Systems
Show summary
We investigate whether geographic representation affects local voting behavior in closed-list proportional representation (PR) systems, where conventional theoretical wisdom suggests a limited role of localism in voter preferences. Using detailed data on Norwegian parliamentary candidates' hometowns, we show that parties engage in geographic balancing when constructing candidate lists. However, because most districts contain more municipalities than seats, not all municipalities will ultimately see a local candidate elected. A regression discontinuity design applied to marginal candidates reveals that parties obtain higher within-district support in subsequent elections in incumbents' hometowns — novel evidence of "friends-and-neighbors" voting in an otherwise party-centered environment. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that represented municipalities often continue to have locally-connected candidates in top positions, in contrast to municipalities with losing candidates, and are more frequently referenced in legislative speeches. There is no evidence that unequal representation creates inequalities in distributive policies.
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Boeri, Tito; Garibaldi, Pietro & Moen, Espen Rasmus
(2021)
In medio stat victus
Labor Demand Effects of an Increase in the
Retirement Age
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Bruno, Lars Christian & Steen, Riana
(2021)
Norwegian oil market concentration and its effects on the oil service companies 1993–2013
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Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders
(2021)
News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Show summary
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature, namely the FRED-MD dataset. Focusing on US GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news-based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments.
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Kripfganz, Sebastian & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2021)
Instrumental-variable estimation of large-T panel-data models with common factors
Show summary
In this article, we introduce the xtivdfreg command, which implements a general instrumental-variables (IV) approach for fitting panel-data models with many time-series observations, T, and unobserved common factors or interactive effects, as developed by Norkute et al. (2021, Journal of Econometrics 220: 416–446) and Cui et al. (2020a, ISER Discussion Paper 1101). The underlying idea of this approach is to project out the common factors from exogenous covariates using principal-components analysis and to run IV regression in both of two stages, using defactored covariates as instruments. The resulting two-stage IV estimator is valid for models with homogeneous or heterogeneous slope coefficients and has several advantages relative to existing popular approaches.
In addition, the xtivdfreg command extends the two-stage IV approach in two major ways. First, the algorithm accommodates estimation of unbalanced panels. Second, the algorithm permits a flexible specification of instruments.
We show that when one imposes zero factors, the xtivdfreg command can replicate the results of the popular Stata ivregress command. Notably, unlike ivregress, xtivdfreg permits estimation of the two-way error-components paneldata model with heterogeneous slope coefficients.
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Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon H., Smith, Daniel M. & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2021)
Moral hazard in electoral teams: List rank and campaign effort
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Titl, Vitezslav; De Witte, Kristof & Geys, Benny
(2021)
Political Donations, Public Procurement and Government Efficiency
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Landazuri Concha, Ursula Alejandra; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin
(2021)
Dynamics of Buyer-Seller Relations in Norwegian Wine Imports
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Juodis, Artūras; Karavias, Yiannis & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2021)
A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels
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Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny
(2021)
Partisan bias in politicians’ perception of scandals
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Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2021)
The sensitivity of structural equation modeling with ordinal data to underlying non-normality and observed distributional forms
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Gola, Pawel
(2021)
Supply and Demand in a Two-Sector Matching Model
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Fiva, Jon H.; Geys, Benny, Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2021)
Political Alignment and Bureaucratic Pay
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Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis
(2021)
An incidental parameters free inference approach for panels with common shocks
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Athanasopoulos, George; Sarafidis, Vasilis, Weatherburn, Don & Miller, Rohan
(2021)
Longer-term impacts of trading restrictions on alcohol-related violence: insights from New South Wales, Australia
Show summary
Background and Aims:In February 2014, the government of New South Wales (NSW),Australia, introduced new restrictions (known as the‘lockout laws’) on the sale of alco-hol in licensed premises in two of Sydney’s most prominent entertainment districts,Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD). This study aimed to determine:(i) whether the introduction of the lockout laws was the point at which the time patternof the assault series in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts changed; (ii) whetherthe apparent reduction in assault in these precincts persists when we control for com-mon variations in assault across the entire state of NSW; (iii) whether the reduction inassault in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts resulted in a displacement of theassault problem into other areas; and (iv) whether there is a net reduction in assault aftertaking any spill-over or displacement effects into account.Design:Structural break analysis was used to determine the date at which the time pat-tern of assaults changed. Interrupted time series analysis with a rest-of-NSW comparatorwas used to assess the change in assault.Setting, cases and measurements:The monthly totals of incidents of non-domesticassaults reported to the NSW Police between January 2009 and March 2019 (n= 123).Findings:The structural break in assaults occurred in January 2014 rather than inFebruary 2014, when the lockout laws were introduced. The reduction in assault persistseven when we control for common influences across NSW as a whole. In particular, fromJanuary 2014 onwards, assaults fell immediately by 22% (a downward step) in KX (90%confidence interval [CI] = 15–28) and by 33% in the CBD (90% CI = 19–47). Assaultscontinued declining in KX (trend-break coefficient =−0.094, 90% CI =−0.192 to 0.005).The reduction in assault in the KX and CBD precincts is associated with a rise in assaultin areas surrounding these precincts. The net effect, nonetheless, remains a lower levelof assault. In particular, we estimate that the net reduction over the three areas com-bined was 1670 assaults (i.e. 27 per month).Conclusion:Some of the initial reduction in assault in KX and the CBD of Sydney, Australia,previously attributed to the February 2014 introduction of lockout laws may have been aresponse to publicity surrounding recent deaths connected with alcohol-related violence.
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Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2021)
Volatility Estimation When the Zero-Process is Nonstationary
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Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian
(2021)
A Composite Likelihood Approach for Dynamic Structural Models
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Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp
(2021)
Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
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Helland, Leif; Iachan, Felipe S., Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Nenov, Plamen
(2021)
Information Quality and Regime Change: Evidence from the Lab
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Iachan, Felipe S.; Nenov, Plamen & Simsek, Alp
(2021)
The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Cross, Jamie
(2021)
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
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Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly
(2021)
Returns, Volatility and the Cryptocurrency Bubble of 2017-18
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Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco & Loria, Francesca
(2021)
Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis
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Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Tesei, Andrea
(2021)
Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore
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Bjørnland, Hilde C; Nordvik, Frode Martin & Rohrer, Maximilian
(2021)
Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota
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Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling
(2021)
Perish or prosper: Trade patterns for highly perishable seafood products
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Murdoch, Zuzana; Connolly, Sara Jane, Kassim, Hussein & Geys, Benny
(2021)
Legitimacy Crises and the Temporal Dynamics of Bureaucratic Representation
Governance. An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions.
Doi:
10.1111/gove.12569
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Bizzotto, Jacopo & Vigier, Adrien Henri
(2021)
Fees, Reputation and Information Production in the Credit Rating Industry
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Bizzotto, Jacopo; Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien Henri
(2021)
Dynamic Persuasion with Outside Information
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Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin Blomhoff & Natvik, Gisle James
(2021)
MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets
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Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian
(2021)
Dealing with misspecification in structural macroeconometric models
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Sarafidis, Vasilis & Wansbeek, Tom
(2021)
Celebrating 40 years of panel data analysis: Past, present and future
Show summary
The present special issue features a collection of papers presented at the 2017 International Panel Data Conference, hosted by the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki, Greece. The conference marked the 40th anniversary of the inaugural International Panel Data Conference, which was held in 1977 at INSEE in Paris, under the auspices of the French National Centre for Scientific Research. As a collection, the papers appearing in this special issue of the Journal of Econometrics continue to advance the analysis of panel data, and paint a state-of-the-art picture of the field.
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Bos, Olivier; Martinez, Francisco Gomez, Onderstal, Sander & Truyts, Tom
(2021)
Signalling in auctions: Experimental evidence
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Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Maih, Junior
(2021)
Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation of commodity exporters and importers
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Lu, Jingfeng; Lu, Zongwei & Riis, Christian
(2021)
Perfect bidder collusion through bribe and request
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Sucarrat, Genaro
(2021)
Identification of volatility proxies as expectations of squared financial returns
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Foldnes, Njål & Grønneberg, Steffen
(2021)
Non-normal Data Simulation using Piecewise Linear Transforms
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Hansen, Bjørn Gunnar & Olsson, Ulf H.
(2021)
Specification Search in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM): How Gradient Component-wise Boosting can Contribute
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Geys, Benny & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2021)
Public Sector Employment and Voter Turnout
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Mauritzen, Johannes & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2021)
Increasing Or Diversifying Risk?Tail Correlations, Transmission Flows And Prices Across Wind Power Areas
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Ile, Runar
(2021)
Deformation theory of Cohen-Macaulay approximation
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Chen, Mei; Ni, Peijie, Reve, Torger, Huang, Jing & Lu, Ren
(2021)
Sales growth or employment growth? Exporting conundrum for new ventures
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Achbari, Wahideh; Geys, Benny & Doosje, Bert Jan
(2021)
Comparing the effect of cross-group friendship on generalized trust to its effect on prejudice: The mediating role of threat perceptions and negative affect
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Seljom, Liselotte; Bygballe, Lena Elisabeth, Riis, Christian, Petkovic, Gordana & Berg, Hallvard
(2021)
Klimatilpasning av vårt bygde miljø og utfordringer ved dagens kost-nytteanalyser
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Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders
(2021)
Asset Returns, News Topics, and Media Effects
Show summary
We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our findings suggest that news published through the mass media has significant, persistent, and potentially economically profitable predictive power for returns. Moreover, during an exogenous media strike returns for firms particularly exposed to our news measure experience a substantial fall relative to the control group. Together these findings lend support for a view where the media act as “information intermediaries” between agents and the state of the world, and disseminate fundamental information to investors.
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Lyshol, Arne Fredrik; Nenov, Plamen & Wevelstad, Thea
(2021)
Duration Dependence and Labor Market Experience
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Bjorvatn, Kjetil; Galle, Simon, Berge, Lars Ivar Oppedal, Miguel, Edward, Posner, Daniel, Tungodden, Bertil & Zhang, Kelly
(2021)
Elections and selfishness
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Norkutė, Milda; Sarafidis, Vasilis, Yamagata, Takashi & Cui, Guowei
(2021)
Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic linear panel data models with defactored regressors and a multifactor error structure
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Dalen, Dag Morten; Locatelli, Marilena & Strøm, Steinar Øivind
(2021)
Biosimilar bidding in centralized tenders in Norway
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Sucarrat, Genaro
(2021)
garchx: Flexible and Robust GARCH-X Modeling
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Bruno, Lars Christian
(2021)
Natural resources and economic growth: comparing nineteenth century Scandinavia and twentieth century Southeast Asia
Show summary
This paper aims to bridge part of the gap that exists between the resource curse literature and economic historical research on natural resources by analysing four resource-abundant countries. The study proposes that at the sectoral level, the determinants of growth in resource-based industries were mostly similar in the late 19th and late 20th centuries. However, we also argue that the relative contribution of natural resources to economic growth might have been declining during the late twentieth century. The evidence comes from an analysis of the forestry sector in Finland and Sweden between 1860 and 1910 and the palm oil industry in Indonesia and Malaysia between 1970 and 2016.
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Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao
(2021)
On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach
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Guo, Na; Zhang, Bo & Cross, Jamie
(2021)
Time-varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia
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ter Ellen, Saskia; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug & Thorsrud, Leif Anders
(2021)
Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media
Show summary
We propose a simple method to quantify narratives from textual data, and identify what we label “narrative monetary policy surprises” as the difference in narrative focus in central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings and economic media coverage prior to those meetings. Identifying narrative surprises in this way using Norwegian data provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a significant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication, highlighting media’s role as information intermediaries.
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Geys, Benny; Murdoch, Zuzana & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2021)
Political (Over)Representation of Public Sector Employees and the Double-Motive Hypothesis: Evidence from Norwegian Register Data (2007-2019)
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Grytten, Jostein Ivar; Skau, Irene & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen
(2020)
Who dies early? Education, mortality and causes of death in Norway
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Gharsallah, Sofian & Sucarrat, Genaro
(2020)
Hvor presise er prognosene i Nasjonalbudsjettet?
Samfunnsøkonomen, 134(3), p. 13-20.
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Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger & Nenov, Plamen
(2020)
Dividend payouts and rollover crises
Show summary
We study dividend payouts when banks face coordination-based rollover crises. Banks in the model can use dividends to both risk shift and signal their available liquidity to short-term lenders, thus, influencing the lenders’ actions. In the unique equilibrium both channels induce banks to pay higher dividends than in the absence of a rollover crisis. In our model banks exert an informational externality on other banks via the inferences and actions of lenders. Optimal dividend regulation that corrects this externality and promote financial stability includes a binding cap on dividends. We also discuss testable implications of our theory.
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Gaasland, Ivar; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling
(2020)
Agglomeration and trade performance – evidence from the Norwegian salmon aquaculture industry
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Gundersen, Thomas Størdal
(2020)
The impact of U.S. supply shocks on the global oil price
Show summary
I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply shocks can account for up to 13% of the oil price variation over the 2003-2015 period. This is considerably more than what has been found in other studies. Moreover, while U.S. oil production has increased substantially since 2010, U.S. oil supply shocks first started to contribute negatively to oil prices beginning in late 2013. This mismatch implies a temporary friction in the transmission of U.S. supply shocks to the rest of the world likely caused by logistical and technological challenges observed in the downstream supply chain.
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Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Poon, Aubrey
(2020)
Macroeconomic forecasting with large Bayesian VARs: Global-local priors and the illusion of sparsity
Show summary
A class of global-local hierarchical shrinkage priors for estimating large Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) has recently been proposed. We question whether three such priors: Dirichlet-Laplace, Horseshoe, and Normal-Gamma, can systematically improve the forecast accuracy of two commonly used benchmarks (the hierarchical Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) prior), when predicting key macroeconomic variables. Using small and large data sets, both point and density forecasts suggest that the answer is no. Instead, our results indicate that a hierarchical Minnesota prior remains a solid practical choice when forecasting macroeconomic variables. In light of existing optimality results, a possible explanation for our finding is that macroeconomic data is not sparse, but instead dense.
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Maurseth, Per Botolf & Svensson, Roger
(2020)
The Importance of Tacit Knowledge: Dynamic Inventor Activity in the Commercialization Phase
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Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders & Zhulanova, Julia
(2020)
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
Show summary
Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors of both inflation and inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the time series features of relevant topics help explain time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we provide a novel estimate of state-dependent information rigidities and present new evidence highlighting the role of the media in understanding inflation expectations and information rigidities.
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Cox, Gary W.; Fiva, Jon Hernes & Smith, Daniel M.
(2020)
Measuring the Competitiveness of Elections
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Karlman, Markus Johan; Kinnerud, Karin & Kragh-Sørensen, Kasper
(2020)
Costly reversals of bad policies: The case of the mortgage interest deduction