Department of Economics

Publications

• Sigstad, Henrik & Lambais, Guilherme (2023)
  Judicial subversion: The effects of political power on court outcomes
  Journal of Public Economics, 217.
• Isachsen, Arne Jon & Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2022)
  Awakening from the Chinese Dream
  Challenge magazine. Doi: 10.1080/05775132.2022.2046881
• Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André Kallåk (2022)
  Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4), p. 499-529. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20190011
  Show summary

  The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock—expansionary versus contractionary—and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elasticities. In supply elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house prices than expansionary shocks. The opposite holds true in supply inelastic areas. We attribute this to asymmetric housing supply adjustments.

• Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels & Rijkers, Bob (2022)
  Elite Capture of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts
  Journal of Political Economy, 130(2), p. 388-425. Doi: 10.1086/717455
• Byrne, David P.; Imai, Susumu, Jain, Neelam & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2022)
  Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data
  Journal of Econometrics, 228(2), p. 278-301. Doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.006
• Galle, Simon; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres & Yi, Moises (2022)
  Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade
  Review of Economic Studies, 90(1), p. 331-375. Doi: 10.1093/restud/rdac020
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  We develop a multi-sector gravity model with heterogeneous workers to quantify the aggregate and group-level welfare effects of trade. The model generalizes the specific-factors intuition to a setting with labor reallocation, leads to a parsimonious formula for the group-level welfare effects from trade, and nests the aggregate results in Arkolakis et al. (2012). We estimate the model using the structural relationship between China-shock driven changes in manufacturing employment and average earnings across US groups defined as commuting zones. We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as four times the average gain. However, adjusting for plausible measures of inequality aversion barely affects the welfare gains. We also develop and estimate an extension of the model that endogenizes labor force participation and unemployment, finding similar welfare effects from the China shock.

• Juodis, Artūras & Sarafidis, Vasilis (2022)
  A Linear Estimator for Factor-Augmented Fixed-T Panels With Endogenous Regressors
  Journal of business & economic statistics, 40(1), p. 1-15. Doi: 10.1080/07350015.2020.1766469
• Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin, Yang, Bixuan, Gephart, Jessica A., Smith, Martin D., Anderson, James L., Camp, Edward V., Garlock, Taryn M., Love, David C. & Oglend, Atle (2022)
  China’s seafood imports – not for domestic consumption? : an estimated 74.9% of China's seafood imports are reexported
  Science, 375(6579), p. 386-388. Doi: 10.1126/science.abl4756
• Grønneberg, Steffen; Foldnes, Njål & Marcoulides, Katerina (2022)
  covsim: An R Package for Simulating Non-Normal Data for Structural Equation Models Using Copulas
  Journal of Statistical Software, 102(3), p. 1-45. Doi: 10.18637/jss.v102.i03
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  In factor analysis and structural equation modeling non-normal data simulation is traditionally performed by specifying univariate skewness and kurtosis together with the target covariance matrix. However, this leaves little control over the univariate distributions and the multivariate copula of the simulated vector. In this paper we explain how a more flexible simulation method called vine-to-anything (VITA) may be obtained from copula-based techniques, as implemented in a new R package, covsim. VITA is based on the concept of a regular vine, where bivariate copulas are coupled together into a full multivariate copula. We illustrate how to simulate continuous and ordinal data for covariance modeling, and how to use the new package discnorm to test for underlying normality in ordinal data. An introduction to copula and vine simulation is provided in the appendix.

• Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie & van Dijk, Herman K. (2022)
  Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
  Journal of business & economic statistics. Doi: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2039159
• Grønneberg, Steffen & Foldnes, Njål (2022)
  Factor analyzing ordinal items requires substantive knowledge of response marginals
  Psychological methods. Doi: 10.1037/met0000495
• Oglend, Atle; Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  Estimating Pricing Rigidities in Bilateral Transactions Markets
  American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(1), p. 209-227. Doi: 10.1111/ajae.12230
• Brekke, Kurt Richard; Dalen, Dag Morten & Straume, Odd Rune (2022)
  Paying for pharmaceuticals: uniform pricing versus two-part tariffs
  Journal of Health Economics, 83. Doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102613
• Bruno, Lars Christian; Eloranta, Jari, Ojala, Jari & Pehkonen, Jaakko (2022)
  Road to unity? Nordic economic convergence in the long run
  Scandinavian Economic History Review. Doi: 10.1080/03585522.2022.2032318
• Costa, Francisco; Nunes, Leticia & Sanches, Fabio Miessi (2022)
  How to Attract Physicians to Underserved Areas? Policy Recommendations from a Structural Model
  Review of Economics and Statistics. Doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01155
• Boppart, Timo; Harmenberg, Karl, Krusell, Per & Olsson, Jonna (2022)
  Integrated epi-econ assessment of vaccination
  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 140. Doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104308
• Straume, Hans-Martin & Sudhakaran, Pratheesh O. (2022)
  Seafood markets in transition
  Aquaculture Economics & Management, 26(3), p. 253-258. Doi: 10.1080/13657305.2022.2102091
• Straume, Hans-Martin; Asche, Frank, Oglend, Atle, Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim, Birkenbach, Anna M., Langguth, Johannes, Lanquepin, Guillaume & Roll, Kristin Helen (2022)
  Impacts of Covid-19 on Norwegian salmon exports: A firm-level analysis
  Aquaculture, 561. Doi: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2022.738678
• Korotov, Sergey; Lund, Lars Fredrik Kirkebø & Vatne, Jon Eivind (2022)
  Tight bounds for the dihedral angle sums of a pyramid
  Applications of Mathematics. Doi: 10.21136/AM.2022.0010-22
• Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H. & Tran, Trung Duc (2022)
  The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil
  Journal of applied econometrics, 37(5), p. 882-895. Doi: 10.1002/jae.2905
• Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz & Geys, Benny (2022)
  Politicians and Scandals that Damage the Party Brand
  Legislative Studies Quarterly. Doi: 10.1111/lsq.12377
• Galeati, Lucio; Harang, Fabian Andsem & Mayorcas, Avi (2022)
  Distribution dependent SDEs driven by additive fractional Brownian motion
  Probability theory and related fields, p. 1-59. Doi: 10.1007/s00440-022-01145-w
• Harang, Fabian Andsem; Tindel, Samy & Wang, Xiaohua (2022)
  Volterra equations driven by rough signals 2: higher order expansions
  Stochastics and Dynamics. Doi: 10.1142/S0219493723500028
• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Knutsen, Magnus Våge (2022)
  The power of outside options in the presence of obstinate types
  Games and Economic Behavior, 136, p. 454-468. Doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2022.10.011
• Asche, Frank; Straume, Hans-Martin, Garlock, Taryn M., Johansen, Ulf, Kvamsdal, Sturla Furunes, Nygård, Rune, Pincinato, Ruth Beatriz & Tveterås, Ragnar (2022)
  Challenges and opportunities: Impacts of COVID-19 on Norwegian seafood exports
  Aquatic Living Resources, 35(15), p. 1-11. Doi: 10.1051/alr/2022017
• Geys, Benny; Heggedal, Tom-Reiel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2022)
  Age and vote choice: Is there a conservative shift among older voters?
  Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, 78. Doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102485
• Schröder, Maximilian & Eraslan, Sercan (2022)
  Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm
  International Journal of Forecasting. Doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.009
• Kreiberg, David & Zhou, Xingwu (2022)
  A Faster Procedure for Estimating SEMs Applying Minimum Distance Estimators With a Fixed Weight Matrix
  Structural Equation Modeling. Doi: 10.1080/10705511.2022.2076093
• Furlanetto, Francesco; Hagelund, Kåre, Hansen, Frank & Robstad, Ørjan (2022)
  Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis
  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Doi: 10.1111/obes.12524
  Show summary

  This paper documents the suite of models (SoMs) used by Norges Bank to estimate theoutput gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages,investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap series in termsof its forecasting properties, its reliability and its cyclical sensitivity to various measuresof demand and supply shocks. A simple equally weighted average of estimates fromdifferent models features a better forecasting performance than each individual model. Inaddition, it helps predicting inflation in pseudo real time and exhibits limited variationswhen new data become available. The summary measure of potential output respondsstrongly and rapidly to permanent shocks and to narrative measures of technology shocksbut, although to a more limited extent, also to demand shocks, thus partly capturinghysteresis effects.

• Iversen, Nina; Hem, Leif Egil & Olsson, Ulf H. (2022)
  Willingness to buy US products in three Southeast European countries: The effects of cognitive, affective and conative components of country-of-origin image
  JEEMS. Journal of East European Management Studies, 27(3), p. 487-518. Doi: 10.5771/0949-6181-2022-3-487
• Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Sørensen, Rune Jørgen (2022)
  The zero-rent society: Evidence from hydropower and petroleum windfalls in Norwegian local governments
  Journal of Public Economics, 209. Doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104650
• Rebnor, Robert; Straume, Hans-Martin & Vårdal, Erling (2022)
  Valutabruk i norsk utenrikshandel
  Samfunnsøkonomen, p. 54-65.
• Anderson, James L.; Asche, Frank, Garlock, Taryn, Hegde, Shraddha, Ropicki, Andrew & Straume, Hans-Martin (2022)
  Impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. Seafood Availability
  Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization. Doi: 10.1515/jafio-2022-0017
• Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo (2022)
  Mind the gap: stylized dynamic facts and structrual models
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4), p. 104-135. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20200054
• Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo (2022)
  Mind the gap: Stylized dynamic facts and structural models
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(4), p. 104-135. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20200054
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  We study what happens to identified shocks and to dynamic responses when the data generating process features q disturbances but q 1 < q variables are used in an empirical model. Identified shocks are linear combinations of current and past values of all structural disturbances and do not necessarily combine disturbances of the same type. Theory- based restrictions may be insufficient to obtain structural dynamics. We revisit the evidence regarding the transmission of house price and of uncertainty shocks. We provide suggestions on how to compare the dynamics of larger scale DSGEs models with smaller scale VARs. (JEL E12, E13, E23, E31, E43, R31)

• Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco & Maffei Faccioli, Nicolo (2022)
  The decline of the labor share: new empirical evidence
  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(3), p. 163-198. Doi: 10.1257/mac.20190365
• Anundsen, André Kallåk; Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen, Røed Larsen, Erling & Thorsrud, Leif Anders (2022)
  Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown
  Journal of Housing Economics. Doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101907
• Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif & Morton, Rebecca (2022)
  Can Paying Politicians Well Reduce Corruption? The Effects of Wages and Uncertainty on Electoral Competition
  Games and Economic Behavior, 135, p. 60-73. Doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2022.05.008
• Stauskas, Ovidijus (2022)
  Complete Theory for CCE Under Heterogeneous Slopes and General Unknown Factors
  Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Doi: 10.1111/obes.12523
• Cui, Guowei; Norkutė, Milda, Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi (2022)
  Two-stage instrumental variable estimation of linear panel data models with interactive effects
  Econometrics Journal, 25(2), p. 340-361. Doi: 10.1093/ectj/utab029
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  This paper analyses the instrumental variables (IV) approach put forward by Norkute et al. (2021), in the context of static linear panel data models with interactive effects present in the error term and the regressors. Instruments are obtained from transformed regressors, thereby it is not necessary to search for external instruments. We consider a two-stage IV (2SIV) and a mean-group IV (MGIV) estimator for homogeneous and heterogeneous slope models, respectively. The asymptotic analysis reveals that: (i) the NT−−−√-consistent 2SIV estimator is free from asymptotic bias that may arise due to the estimation error of the interactive effects, while (ii) existing estimators can suffer from asymptotic bias; (iii) the proposed 2SIV estimator is asymptotically as efficient as existing estimators that eliminate interactive effects jointly in the regressors and the error, while (iv) the relative efficiency of the estimators that eliminate interactive effects only in the error term is indeterminate. A Monte Carlo study confirms good approximation quality of our asymptotic results.

• Sanches, Fabio Miessi; Capeleti, Paulo & Garcia, Marcio (2022)
  Countercyclical Credit Policies and Banking Concentration: Evidence from Brazil
  Journal of Banking & Finance, 143. Doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106589
• Sørensen, Rune Jørgen; Iversen, Jon Marius Vaag, From, Johan & Bonesrønning, Hans (2022)
  Parenting styles and school performance: evidence from second-generation immigrants in Norway
  Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research. Doi: 10.1080/00313831.2022.2127882
• Athanasopoulos, George; Sarafidis, Vasilis, Weatherburn, Don & Miller, Rohan (2021)
  Longer-term impacts of trading restrictions on alcohol-related violence: insights from New South Wales, Australia
  Addiction. Doi: 10.1111/add.15774
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  Background and Aims:In February 2014, the government of New South Wales (NSW),Australia, introduced new restrictions (known as the‘lockout laws’) on the sale of alco-hol in licensed premises in two of Sydney’s most prominent entertainment districts,Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD). This study aimed to determine:(i) whether the introduction of the lockout laws was the point at which the time patternof the assault series in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts changed; (ii) whetherthe apparent reduction in assault in these precincts persists when we control for com-mon variations in assault across the entire state of NSW; (iii) whether the reduction inassault in the KX and CBD entertainment precincts resulted in a displacement of theassault problem into other areas; and (iv) whether there is a net reduction in assault aftertaking any spill-over or displacement effects into account.Design:Structural break analysis was used to determine the date at which the time pat-tern of assaults changed. Interrupted time series analysis with a rest-of-NSW comparatorwas used to assess the change in assault.Setting, cases and measurements:The monthly totals of incidents of non-domesticassaults reported to the NSW Police between January 2009 and March 2019 (n= 123).Findings:The structural break in assaults occurred in January 2014 rather than inFebruary 2014, when the lockout laws were introduced. The reduction in assault persistseven when we control for common influences across NSW as a whole. In particular, fromJanuary 2014 onwards, assaults fell immediately by 22% (a downward step) in KX (90%confidence interval [CI] = 15–28) and by 33% in the CBD (90% CI = 19–47). Assaultscontinued declining in KX (trend-break coefficient =−0.094, 90% CI =−0.192 to 0.005).The reduction in assault in the KX and CBD precincts is associated with a rise in assaultin areas surrounding these precincts. The net effect, nonetheless, remains a lower levelof assault. In particular, we estimate that the net reduction over the three areas com-bined was 1670 assaults (i.e. 27 per month).Conclusion:Some of the initial reduction in assault in KX and the CBD of Sydney, Australia,previously attributed to the February 2014 introduction of lockout laws may have been aresponse to publicity surrounding recent deaths connected with alcohol-related violence.

• Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro (2021)
  Volatility Estimation When the Zero-Process is Nonstationary
  Journal of business & economic statistics. Doi: 10.1080/07350015.2021.1999821
• Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco & Loria, Francesca (2021)
  Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis
  Review of Economics and Statistics. Doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01120
• Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly (2021)
  Returns, Volatility and the Cryptocurrency Bubble of 2017-18
  Economic Modelling. Doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105643
• Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C & Cross, Jamie (2021)
  Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
  Review of Economics and Statistics. Doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01073