Giovanni Pagliardi

Gala, Vito D.; Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A. (2023)

Global political risk and international stock returns

Journal of Empirical Finance, 72, s. 78- 102. Doi: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.03.004 - Full text in research archive

Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns up to 15% per annum. We identify a global political risk factor (P-factor) commanding a risk premium of 11% per annum. High political uncertainty countries covary positively with the P-factor, earning higher average returns. Augmenting the global market portfolio with the P-factor significantly reduces pricing errors and improves cross-sectional fit. Politics-policy uncertainty affects returns through both cash-flow and discount rate channels.